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The Forecast Scorecard - March 9, 2020

We are going to do things a little differently today due to the absolute breakdown of global equity markets. Below is data sourced from one of our research services, Hedgeye. It gives a glimpse into the truly awful data coming out of countries around the world. 

Just look at China's numbers. They are truly horrific. Not far away, Japan released their GDP numbers for Q4 of 2019 which came in at -7.1%!!! 

Today, Monday, March 9th, saw a 6-7 standard deviation move in Oil prices, which have collapsed. WTI fell over -25% today alone! US Treasury Yields have crashed, which are down 25 bps in a day on the 10-year and 108 basis points in a month. 

The Greek Stock market has crashed -34% in a month. 

High Yield Spreads are widening over 600 basis points.

The Australian stock market broke -7.4% overnight and slid over -20% since February. The German Dax is also down -22% since February. 

Today alone, the Russell 2000 broke down nearly -10%, while the SPX was down -7.5% and the NASDAQ was down around -7.3%.

Just as you saw in December 2018, credit is going to start to lock up as spreads widen.

Good luck out there! Keep your head on a swivel. Let us know if we can help in any way!